Jobs creation is the canary in the coal mine.
The economy will remain slow, sick and not very fun until unemployment comes down to at least 7% and preferably 6% or less.
Non-farm payrolls came out with an increase of 120,000 jobs, which was the result of 140,000 newly created jobs in the private sector offset against a 20,000 reduction in government jobs.
However, the mainline press seems to skip the line I write about so much regarding the birth/death model. Remember, this is not the birth or death of people looking for jobs. Instead it is a guess by our government, using a telephone survey of small business, as to the number of new jobs created. This month the “guess” was +102,000 jobs.
If the birth/death model guesstimate is taken out of the calculation, the actual number of jobs created goes negative. An interesting point to note is that the birth/death model is only adjusted for accuracy once per year. For the last few years the pattern has been to release a high birth/death model jobs creation number and adjust later.
For 2010 that annual adjustment to “the true new jobs data” resulted in the reduction of over 1,000,000 jobs! Sorry, but to miss by 83,000 jobs a month, for every month of the year, rings of intentionally misleading the data.
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